The four scenarios that closed out the bull case for Graphic Packaging (NYSE:GPK) were, admittedly, tilted towards my own favourable outlook. Most bullish write-ups would choose to end there, but a thesis is worth more when it withstands probability than when it avoids it. All predictions are uncertain, but the better ones are weighted against base rates and bend when the facts do.

My previous article balanced on the cutting edge of technology. This one sits on the edge of a cardboard box. On face value, Graphic Packaging Holding Company (NYSE:GPK) isn't glamorous, but then again, neither is the inside of a cereal box. But somebody still had to make it. As the world's largest producer of paperboard packaging, GPK probably did too.